Perusing in search of a shocker or two. The Line: North Carolina (+6½) at Miami.
History says: Butch Davis is 3-0 against his former employer since landing at UNC in 2007, all three coming as an underdog, and all in large part thanks to the 'Canes' consistent generosity: The Tar Heels picked off Kyle Wright four times in 2007, Robert Marve twice in 2008 and Jacory Harris four times last year, including a pair of pick-six returns by Kendric Burney that accounted for the final margin in a 33-24 UNC upset.
I'm feeling lucky. Carolina was written off immediately with half its starting lineup in NCAA limbo in losses to LSU and Georgia Tech, between which the most high-profile assistant coach resigned in disgrace. Even shorthanded and beset by potentially program-crippling distractions, though, the Tar Heels took both the Tigers and Yellow Jackets to the wire, and have quietly taken the last four in exactly the fashion suggested by the pre-scandal hype this offseason: None of the four victims (Rutgers, East Carolina, Clemson, Virginia) has topped 17 points, making UNC the second-best scoring defense in the ACC.
For his part, Jacory Harris hasn't done anything to suggest significant growth since serving up a buffet of interceptions last year in Chapel Hill. Since connecting on three touchdown passes in an opening-night scrimmage against Florida A&M, Harris is completing just below half of his passes and been picked off nine times in the last five games. North Carolina quarterback T.J. Yates, on the other hand, has been leaps and bounds better than the mediocre scapegoat who guided the ACC's most impotent passing game in 2009, delivering a stellar 11:1 touchdown:interception ratio with big games against LSU (412 yards, 3 TDs) and Virginia (325 yards, 3 TDs). Receiver Jheranie Boyd has been the legitimate big-play threat the attack desperately needed – at least, when they've been able to get him involved.
Reality check. The Tar Heels still haven't been able to generate any kind of consistent running game, and Yates will be throwing into the teeth of a veteran defense that ranks second nationally in pass efficiency D and fourth in sacks. But UNC's biggest concern remains its own secondary: As wildly erratic as Harris is on a weekly basis, he can challenge the Heels deep more effectively than any other quarterback they've seen, and Carolina is still operating with both of its starting cornerbacks and arguably the best pass rusher in the nation watching from home. At some point, the attrition has to begin taking its toll.
Moment of truth: Straight-up, against the spread or take the chalk?
North Carolina has been a better team than Miami over the last month, but the Tar Heels don't have the one clear advantage – a consistent, multi-pronged running game on offense – that put Ohio State and Florida State over the top against the 'Canes earlier this year. As presumptuous as it is to put anything past Jacory Harris, relying on him to do more harm than good to his own team is no way to gamble. The high probability of a Jacory bomb or two blowing up in Miami's face may be worth taking UNC with the points, but the Heels are still too shorthanded in the wrong places to trust straight up on the road.
See also...
Kentucky (+4) over Georgia. The Wildcats may not be as "hot" as the Bulldogs after a single upset over South Carolina, but how many times is Kentucky ever going to get Georgia in Lexington as a toss-up game, with the SEC East ripe for the taking? This is exactly the sort of not-that-impressive upset that memorable seasons are built on, and Kentucky putting itself in the thick of the division race going into Halloween weekend would certainly qualify as "memorable" in that long-suffering neck of the woods.
Georgia Tech (+5) over Clemson. An odd line, considering Georgia Tech shows every sign of returning to the form that lifted it to the ACC championship last year, and two of Clemson's three wins thus far have come over North Texas and Presbyterian. The Tigers haven't done of much offensively since a big first half at Auburn more than a month ago, including in last week's turnover-fueled, 31-7 win over Maryland, in which the offense barely cracked 200 total yards. At least the Yellow Jackets still have the triple-option attack going for them, which is one more thing than Clemson at the moment.
Western Kentucky (+6) over Louisiana-Lafayette. I'm calling it right here: After last week's heartbreaking fourth-quarter collapse with victory seemingly in hand against UL-Monroe, the nation's longest losing streak is due to end at 26 games. WKU remains as bad a team as they come in almost every conceivable way, but Lafayette's nothing to write home about, either – one of the Cajuns' two wins was by a single point against hopeless, injury-ravaged North Texas, after UNT failed to come up with a two-point conversion for the win. The Hilltoppers have to get over the hump sometime, and this looks like as good a place as any.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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