What's on the line over the next 12 hours.• Iowa at Michigan. With upcoming dates against frontrunners Michigan State and Ohio State, the Hawkeyes still control their own destiny in the Big Ten. For Michigan, the afternoon feels more like a fight for survival: A month of optimism evaporated in last week's flop against MSU, which made it all too clear that the overmatched defense isn't about to pick up the slack when warp-speed quarterback Denard Robinson is made to appear as a mere mortal. Another meh afternoon from Robinson against the nation's No. 1 scoring defense would send the Wolverines that much closer to the edge of the same abyss that consumed them over the second half of 2009.
• Texas at Nebraska, Mississippi State at Florida, California at USC. The Longhorns, Gators and Trojans have all dropped two games in a row, one each as a substantial home favorite and one each as a substantial road 'dog. Texas has never lost three straight under Mack Brown, nor Florida under Urban Meyer; USC hasn't dropped three in a row since the first half of Pete Carroll's first year, in 2001. For at least one of them today, the simmering inferno is about to rage out of control.
• Arkansas at Auburn. Four of the top 13 teams in the current polls reside in the SEC West, only two of whom have gone head-to-head so far. With one division loss already on its record, a second on the Plains would make Arkansas the first of the West contenders relegated to a spoiler role for the rest of the year.
Auburn, on the other hand, can bag another head for the strength-of-schedule crowd (i.e. the BCS computers) and add another foothold to its steady climb into the national championship discussion.
• Nevada at Hawaii. The Wolf Pack's late-night trip to the islands is the most dangerous remaining threat to the spectacle of their Thanksgiving showdown at Boise State, which will carry roughly ten times the national relevance if both teams arrive undefeated, dragging the heads of the rest of the WAC behind them. Nevada is 0-5 at Hawaii since joining the WAC in 2000, over which time the Warriors have been about 60 percent more likely to win at home than on the road.
• Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. Thanks to the schedule (and the Thursday night generosity of Jerrod Johnson), the Cowboys are one of the quietest 5-0 outfits in the country. If they can get to 6-0 in Lubbock, though, with division overlord Texas clearly struggling, some nascent Big 12 title buzz is bound to follow.
• Illinois at Michigan State. Suddenly, the Spartans are staring down some outsized expectations after vanquishing Wisconsin and Michigan for a 6-0 start, with only a trip to Iowa standing in the way of a potential Big Ten championship run. In that context, a stumble against Illinois – a seven-point underdog coming into East Lansing its own road upset at Penn State last week – would be vintage Spartans.
• Minnesota at Purdue. Tim Brewster may be coaching for his job in West Lafayette, if only for another week.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
Rene Baeten David Bailey John Banks Mark Barnett Jonathan Barragan
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