Perusing the weekly lines in search of a shocker or two.The Line: Baylor (+7½) at Texas.
History says: Baylor hasn't beaten the mighty Longhorns since the Great Collapse of '97 that initially brought Mack Brown to Texas, and hasn't won in Austin since 1991. It hasn't come within three touchdowns of the 'Horns in more than a decade. It hasn't faced Texas as a ranked team when Texas is unranked since 1986, in the days of the old Southwest Conference.
And at 3-1 to open Big 12 play, the Bears are also bumping against their historical ceiling as they hit the meat of the schedule: Baylor hasn't finished .500 in conference games since the Big 12 was formed in 1996, and prior to this year, only the 2005 team (3-5) even seriously entertained the possibility
I'm feeling lucky. Baylor – Baylor which is Baylor – is legitimately explosive on offense for what might as well be the first time ever, as far as anyone on the field is concerned. Art Briles' spread passing attack has the Bears sitting fifth nationally in passing and total offense, with at least 30 points in seven of their first eight games. Quarterback Robert Griffin is the most efficient, least sacked quarterback in the conference, leads the league in big plays and total offense and should own all of Baylor's career passing marks by the end of the year. He already has five different receivers with at least 25 catches for the year. Last week's 683-yard barrage against Kansas State broke the school record for total offense for the second time in less than a month. They passed their way out of the "fluke" phase a long time ago.
Compare that to a Longhorn attack on the other side that's putting up a little below 24 points per game, hasn't hit 30 since early-September scrimmages against Rice and Wyoming and currently ranks 106th nationally in turnover margin. Baylor's defense is nothing special, but it's been far better than the rock-bottom Iowa State outfit that completely handcuffed Texas last week. The 'Horns may not have found the end zone at all there or in the embarrassing home loss to UCLA in September if both defenses hadn't loosened with the game well in hand in the fourth quarter, and there's nothing at all to suggest this might be the weekend it all comes together.
Reality check. The Bears' prolific numbers so far have come exclusively against some of the worst defenses in the country; the one remotely competent D they've seen, at TCU, held them to 263 yards and sacked Griffin three times in a 45-10 rout. Texas hasn't been nearly as dominant as the Horned Frogs, but it still leads the Big 12 in total defense and knows how to handle spread attacks of all varieties, as Texas Tech and Nebraska can attest. Griffin's 6-of-19, 71-yard effort in Austin in 2008 was the worst passing effort of his freshman year.
Oh, and there might be a minor talent gap.
Moment of truth: Straight-up, against the spread or take the chalk?
Honestly, if the logos were reversed and these two teams were measured strictly on the season to date, Baylor would pretty clearly come in as the favorite, even on the road. And if you're looking for a cogent counter-argument to the Bears' statistical edge on paper, there's not a better one than this: Texas is Texas, and Baylor is Baylor. For their obvious improvement, the Bears still haven't earned the "wow" win against a conference heavy. If the most talented team in the Big 12 can't come out swinging with enough fury to cover the spread against an obvious upstart, the ongoing malaise is even worse than UT fans imagined.
See also...
• Texas Tech (+7) over Texas A&M. Although, with these two defenses, only if the Red Raiders get the ball last.
• East Carolina (+7½) over Central Florida. The Pirates are the masters of the to-the-wire shootout – 51-49 over Tulsa on the final play, 44-43 over Southern Miss on a failed two-point conversion to put USM ahead in the closing minutes, 33-27 over N.C. State in overtime – and bring the first semblance of a competent, up-tempo spread passing attack that UCF has seen all year.
• North Texas (+6) over Western Kentucky. Yes, UNT is as bad as they come, and just fired its coach. But Western Kentucky just its first game ever as a full-fledged I-A/FBS program after 23 consecutive losses. Now Vegas is tapping the Hilltoppers for two in a row? Slow down, guys.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
Jim Pomeroy Christophe Pourcel Sebastien Pourcel Wyman Priddy Alessandro Puzar
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