When reflecting on the 2010 Padres it’s hard to fathom what they accomplished. Despite averaging a paltry 4.1 runs per game and hitting .246 as a team, San Diego had the same number of wins as the Texas Rangers. Pitching, particularly its lockdown bullpen, was the reason why it nearly conquered the NL West. In the end, however, the Pads’ powerless offense failed them, losing 3-0 on the last day of the regular season to San Francisco, a defeat which propelled the World Champion Giants into the playoffs.
Instead of building on last year’s success, Bud Black’s club appears to be heading in the opposite direction. Its most productive slugger over the past several seasons, Adrian Gonzalez, who was responsible for 16-percent of San Diego’s RBI and 23.5-percent of its HR production last year, has changed coasts. Minus the three-time All-Star, this team should be sponsored by Chico’s Bail Bonds. On paper, it’s seriously bad. If the Pads have any chance of duplicating 2010’s improbable win total, they will have to be on the right end of several 2-1, 3-2 games – possible, but highly unlikely.
To scratch your fantasy itch, here are four pressing questions about arguably the most uninteresting team (outside Mat Latos and Heath Bell) in imaginary baseball:
1) With Gonzalez’s departure, what Padres bats stand to benefit most?
To be honest, this is an offense comprised not of real USDA-approved beef, but rather undeterminable ‘taco meat filling.’ No one will be able to completely fill the void left by Gonzalez. However, a couple of bats could receive a slight value boost, most notably, Ryan Ludwick, Chase Headley and Brad Hawpe.
Ludwick was an absolute disaster after coming over from St. Louis via trade in July, posting an embarrassing .631 OPS in 209 at-bats with the Pads. A calf injury and plain old bad luck (.260 BABIP) were partly to blame, but, at 32, the undiscerning hitter (24.7 K% in ’10) is slowing down. Because of his fly-ball-heavy profile (45.2 FB% last year), he has the best shot to contribute 25 homers and 80-plus RBIs, though at an AVG cost. At best, he’s a fifth outfielder or second utility player in deeper mixed-leagues.
The crown jewel of the Padres farm system just a couple years ago, Headley has proven useful in spurts during his brief big league tenure. Entering his third full-season, he may finally live up to his once glowing promise. Underlying signs of a numbers spike are present. Last year, he sliced Ks, increased contact and ran more aggressively. If he can undercut the ball with more ferocity (1.28 GB/FB in ’10), he’s a dark-horse 20-20 candidate, a club no hot corner joined a season ago. Deep leaguers could do much worse at CI in the later rounds.
As for the Pads’ new first baseman, Hawpe, the chances for a numbers revival are relatively slim. His unsightly strikeout rate (28.5 K% in ’10) and dwindling HR/FB percentage lends little hope for a repeat of 2007. After last year’s wretched campaign, he can only head in one direction, but he’ll likely be a below average contributor at an overloaded position. In other words, unless he slams Four Loko the entire year, he’s only rosterable in Grand Canyon-deep leagues.
2) In the newly released Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball mag, only one player, Cameron Maybin, ranks inside our top 300. And he checks in at No. 289. What San Diego hitter has the best chance to graduate from waivers in mixers?
The aforementioned Headley is a strong candidate to be rescued from the free agent pool, but Maybin is undoubtedly the Padre with the most overall potential.
A journeyman at 25, the toolsy outfielder is playing for his third organization in four years. Though he was hyped incessantly by prognosticators, prior stints in Detroit and Florida were unsuccessful. Maybin’s impatience (0.27 BB/K in career) and groundhog-threatening GB/FB splits (1.72) stunted his growth. Eventually his torrid play at the Triple-A level will translate to the senior circuit. Hitting coach Randy Ready has faith it could happen soon:
"I think at one time, this kid moved pretty quick," Ready said of Maybin, who made his Major League debut at 20 in 2007 with the Tigers. "He was a can't-miss guy. He's been up and down [to the Minor Leagues] and has had a couple of injuries.”
"There's some pop in that bat. It just hasn't transitioned to the Major League level yet."
"For me, we'll work on the approach more than the mechanics," Ready said. "The mental discipline is important. To me, everyone who gets to the big leagues has the ability. It's what can you do mentally day in and day out that allow you to succeed.
"He's got a lot of ingredients. Now we just have to put them all together."
PETCO’s cavernous specs will likely limit his power impact, but the speedy outfielder has 15-25 upside. If he can sharpen his eye, make more consistent contact and avoid sliders outside the zone, this could finally be his breakout year. Play the lottery late.
3) Given the Padres’ shortcomings on offense, trade rumors for Heath Bell are sure to heat up quickly. What current “PENtentiary” member will rescue fantasy bullpens post-Bell?
If the Padres unfathomably defy the odds and contend this year, Bell will remain in SoCal for the entire season. In all likelihood that won’t be the case. Due to his exorbitant salary, the cost conscious franchise will surely deal him to the highest bidder by the deadline, paving the way for a new saves source. Though equipped with several viable options (e.g. Mike Adams and Chad Qualls), the leading candidate to take over end-game duties has to be Luke Gregerson.
Blessed with one of the nastiest sliders in baseball, the 26-year-old has averaged a sensational 10.68 K/9 in 153.1 career innings. Equally impressive, he’s also compiled a 1.34 GB/FB ratio. Missing bats and drawing weak contact, the righty could be a saves difference-maker in the second-half. Even if Bell remains a fixture in the ninth, Gregerson will be an ERA/WHIP savior in any sized league.
4) Saber heads are infatuated with releiver-turned-starter Tim Stauffer. Should he be your valentine?
Quietly, Stauffer was magnificent down the homestretch a season ago. Sliding into the rotation over in final month, he totaled a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts. Though his strikeout rate during that stretch was rather unexciting (5.81 K/9), his terrific command (2.61 BB/9 on the year) and favorable ground-ball rate (1.76 GB/FB) suggest he could be an effective rotation caboose in mixers, especially given his SP/RP eligibility. Yes, wins may be few and far between, but, in statistical speak, he could be 2011’s version of R.A. Dickey.
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Image courtesy of Getty
David Thorpe Rich Thorwaldson Rolf Tibblin Sebastien Tortelli Ben Townley
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